One contract, two sides, one euro in escrow. Settlement is a continuous, linear function of an officially published reference value across the market's Settlement Range — a proportional measure of where the figure printed, never an all-or-nothing outcome.
This page is an interactive simulation of the settlement rule of the Agoraex scalar contract. It is not connected to a blockchain, and the reference value you set below is a simulated official print, not live data. Agoraex is in development, pursuing authorization, and is not yet operational; nothing on this page is an offer of any product or service.
01 · The market
Euro-area annual HICP inflation — flash estimate
Illustrative specimen market (template T2). The underlying is an official statistic that exists whether or not anyone trades it.
QuestionAt what level will the flash estimate print?
Collateral per contractEURC 1.000000 in escrow before the contract exists
Leverage / marginNone — maximum loss is the price paid
02 · Set the published print, watch the euro settle
Settlement
Drag the slider to choose where the official figure prints. The escrowed euro is allocated between the two sides in proportion to the print — the long side gains exactly what the short side concedes.
3.02 %
Long side settles to
—
per EURC 1.00 of escrow
Short side settles to
—
the balance of the escrow
Conservation: long + short = — — exact. Computed in integer micro-EURC (1 EURC = 1,000,000); the long side receives the floored proportional amount and the balance settles to the short side, so no value is created or destroyed.
The payout is a line, not a step
Settlement value of the long side as the print moves across the range. Beyond the bounds the value is capped — exposure is truncated at L and U.
A basis point of the print moves the settlement value; being nearly right pays nearly fully. There is no strike where a euro flips to zero.
03 · Why not all-or-nothing
The same two prints, two contract shapes
Compare a threshold contract ("above 3.00%?" — the fixed-or-zero shape restricted for retail clients in the EU, and not offered on Agoraex) with the scalar contract, when the official print lands a hair either side of 3.00%. Figures per EURC 1.00 of escrow, long side.
Published print
Threshold contract (not offered)
Agoraex scalar contract
S = 2.99%
0.000000
0.498333
S = 3.01%
1.000000
0.501666
Swing for a 0.02pp move
1.000000 — everything
0.003333 — proportional
In the threshold shape, the last basis point decides the entire euro — a verdict. In the scalar shape it decides a third of a cent — a measurement. That is also why the incentive to manipulate the print at a single strike, concentrated in a threshold contract, dissolves in a scalar one.
04 · What holds it together
Full pre-collateralisationEvery contract exists only against EURC 1.00 already in escrow — unbacked exposure cannot be created
Zero-sum settlementThe escrow is allocated between long and short; the venue holds no position and earns a published fee either way
Mechanical resolutionSettlement reads the pre-named official source; the operator has no discretion over the result
Continuous exitSell on the order book before close, or unwind the position and release the escrow